Fresno Bee Newsroom Blog

Obama’s 21st CD win shows Valadao could be vulnerable

Hanford Republican David Valadao trounced his financially strapped and listless Democratic Party opponent, John Hernandez, in last November’s 21st Congressional District race, winning by 16 percentage points.

But Democrat Barack Obama, seeking his second term as president, did pretty good himself. He won the district by 11 percentage points — 55% to 44% for Republican Mitt Romney.

Taken together, it means one thing, said Los Angeles political analyst Allan Hoffenblum, a longtime Republican strategist and author of the California Target Book: “This will be a target race” in 2014.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee appears to have picked up on that. It’s already busy attacking Valadao.

In fact, Obama not only won Valadao’s district in 2012, he also won inside those boundaries in 2008 — 52% to 46% over Arizona Sen. John McCain, the GOP candidate. And Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown won more votes inside Valadao’s district lines in 2010, Hoffenblum said.

Using some of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s own criteria, that pretty much makes Valadao’s seat competitive.

Just to the north of Valadao’s 21st District is the 16th District, held by Fresno Democrat Jim Costa. The National Republican Congressional Committee is saying it, too, is a targeted race.

But there’s one big difference in the two districts — Obama also took Costa’s district, winning by 20 percentage points. It’s why, on paper at least, Valadao looks more vulnerable.

Still, in both districts the key is recruiting a viable candidate, which Hoffenblum said is likely in the works now.

Hernandez’s campaign was consistently broke, which made it hard to get out the message. Valadao, by comparison, had a ton of cash and a $600,000 assist from the outside group Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies.

Valadao won, 58% to 42% for Hernandez.

In the 16th District, Costa outspent Fresno Republican Brian Whelan, who never seemed to get traction despite having a decent war chest. Costa won 57.4% of the vote to Whelan’s 42.6%.

But Hernandez and Whelan were never considered first stringers by party leaders. Despite efforts by both Republican and Democratic Party leaders, no heavy hitters stepped up to try and challenge Valadao or Costa.

The question is — can Democrats bring in a true challenger to take on Valadao in the 21st District, and can Republicans do the same in the 16th District?

Political Notebook: Democrats continue to lead Republicans in Fresno Co. voter registration

Fresno County Democrats are continuing to lead rival Republicans in signing up new voters, data released today by the Secretary of State’s Office shows.

The new voter registration numbers — the last that will be released before Tuesday’s election — show there are 6,396 more Democrats than Republicans in Fresno County.

In raw numbers, it is 164,663 Democrats to 158,267 Republicans.

Last month, the Democrats led by 2,635, and in May, it was 2,700.

Also showing significant growth were those voters who are declining to join a political party, or are registered with one that isn’t recognized by the state, such as the once-relevant Reform Party.

In May, these people with “no party preference” were at 61,869. Last month, it was 62,311. And now, it is 67,417.

The latest numbers show the Republican Party in Fresno County continuing to struggle on the registration front, and marks a continuing reversal of fortune for the local GOP, which a decade ago was riding high.

In 2000, Republicans in Fresno County overtook Democrats in voter registration totals for the first time in anyone’s memory. That lead peaked in 2004 with a GOP advantage of more than 24,000 voters.

But Democrats worked to close the gap, and by the middle of 2010 had retaken the lead. They haven’t relinquished it since, and now appear to be growing it.

A stark example of that is looking back to this point four years ago, when President Barack Obama was seeking his first term in office. At that point, Republicans still held a lead of more than 10,000 voters.

Since that point, Democrats in Fresno County have added more than 11,200 voters, while Republicans have added just 4,800.

It turns a 2004 quote from Michael Der Manouel Jr. on its head. “Countywide,” the current chairman of the Lincoln Club of Fresno County said, “I don’t believe (Democrats) will ever catch us again.”

The City of Fresno also remains solidly Democratic, with 21,350 more registered voters than Republicans.

While Republicans lag in Fresno County, they are continuing their domination of rival Democrats in the rest of the central San Joaquin Valley — Tulare, Kings and Madera counties.

In Tulare, there are 63,809 Republicans to 49,151 Democrats. In Kings, it is 21,812 Republicans to 17,068 Democrats. And in Madera, 24,152 Republicans to 18,301 Democrats.

As for the local congressional races, Democrats are dominating voter registration in the two westside districts — the 16th, where Fresno Democrat Jim Costa is seeking reelection, and the 21st, which is an open seat featuring a battle between Republican Assembly Member David Valadao and Fresno Democrat John Hernandez.

At the same time, Republican voters rule in the eastside districts currently held by GOP incumbents Devin Nunes, Kevin McCarthy and Tom McClintock.

Of particular interest is the Hernandez-Valadao clash, because political prognosticators have dubbed Valadao the clear favorite even though Republicans lag in registration. Hernandez has vowed to get Democrats to the polls.

The registration numbers are through Oct. 22.

Political Notebook: New PAC tries to boost Whelan in 16th Congressional District battle

It’s pretty clear that Fresno Republican Brian Whelan wanted to reach the top level in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Guns” program.

The designation would have given his campaign to unseat incumbent Democratic Rep. Jim Costa in the 16th Congressional District some legitimacy — and, likely, money. With just 12 days until the election, it looks like Whelan will fall a rung short on the Young Guns ladder.

But it appears that there is one organization trying to help Whelan.

The Central Valley Independent PAC was formed Oct. 9 and on Wednesday reported to the Federal Election Commission that it had raised $130,000.

But there must be more cash where that came from because the Central Valley Independent PAC has bought around $200,000 in television time on KFSN (Channel 30), KSEE (Channel 24) and KGPE (Channel 47).

It has formed a Twitter account as well as a website — http://centralvalleyindependentpac.com — but as with so many other independent expenditure groups these days, exact details on the group are hard to find.

The only contributor, according to the Federal Election Commission’s website, is Double B Land Company, which lists an address of 5200 N. Palm Ave., Suite 310, in Fresno.

That is also the address of West Hills Financial LLC, which lists Brad Gleason as its president. Gleason, who also looks to be a farmer and has ties to the Valley’s pistachio industry, is listed on Whelan’s campaign website as an endorser.

He’s also donated close to $5,000 to Whelan’s campaign, as has Gregorio Jacobo, who is listed as executive ranch manager for West Hills Farm Services, which shares a website with West Hills Financial.

The PAC’s treasurer is listed as Ross Allen, and has a Coalinga post-office box. The PO Box number is also tied to Turk Station LLC, which has Allen listed on the Secretary of State’s website as its agent for service of process. Turk Station is listed as a hunting lodge and ranch that also offers wild boar hunts, though it is unclear if the Coalinga-area business is still open.

Neither Gleason or Allen could be reached for comment.

Congressional campaigns aren’t supposed to coordinate their activities with any independent groups such as the Central Valley Independent PAC, but there’s no doubt the question for Whelan is: can the television ads and website help? And, with thousands of people already having voted, are the ads hitting the airwaves too late?